2025 Nilambur By-election Segment-wise (Panchayat and Municipality) Projections

Study done by Aaron Election Strategy Consultancy Services

1.Nilambur Municipality

Projected leader: LDF/CPM (M. Swaraj). The LDF swept the Nilambur town area in the 2020 local polls, giving it a strong grassroots presence here.
Vote share (est.): LDF ~35–45%, UDF ~35–45%, BJP ~5–10%, PV Anvar/TMC ~5–10%. (For reference, the 2021 result citywide was extremely close: P. V. Anvar (LDF-backed) 46.9% vs Congress 45.34%.)
Key issues: Urban infrastructure and services (roads, water, sanitation); tribal welfare (courts note ~300 tribal families in nearby hillside panchayats living in poor conditions); connectivity (post-2018/19 floods many bridges were washed out, isolating hinterlands).
2021 context: In 2021, LDF-backed Anvar won Nilambur by only ~2,700 votes. Historically the seat was a Congress bastion (Aryadan Mohammed’s stronghold) until Anvar’s LDF-backed victories in 2016 and 2021 (2016: Anvar 47.91% vs Shoukath 40.83%). Nilambur town has thus been closely contested.

2.Amarambalam Grama Panchayat

Projected leader: LDF (M. Swaraj). Amarambalam Grama Panchayath also went for the LDF in 2020, suggesting continued Left strength among local voters.
Vote share (est.): LDF ~35–45%, UDF ~30–35%, BJP ~5–10%, PV Anvar/TMC ~5–10%. (For perspective, in 2016 the LDF-backed candidate won ~47.9% vs Congress ~40.8%.)
Key issues: Forest and tribal land rights (Amarambalam has large forest tracts and tribal settlements); human–wildlife conflict (wild boar and elephant incursions on farmland); plantation labor welfare.
2021 context: Across Nilambur, the 2021 contest was razor-thin (LDF-Anvar 46.9% vs UDF 45.34%). Amarambalam’s swing in local elections to LDF (2020) suggests the Left may again edge out here, though UDF appeals to legacy voters remain.

3.Chungathara Grama Panchayat

Projected leader: LDF (M. Swaraj). LDF won Chungathara Grama Panchayath in the 2020 local polls, reflecting strong CPI(M) organization at the grassroots.
Vote share (est.): LDF ~30–40%, UDF ~30–40%, BJP ~10–15%, PV Anvar/TMC ~5–10%. (A roughly three-way split is likely, with BJP making small inroads.)
Key issues: Plantation-worker welfare and migrant labor conditions; highway connectivity (NH66/966); local development (schools, hospitals). BJP is courting the Christian settler vote but still very weak.
2021 context: Chungathara was almost evenly split in 2021 (UDF ~11,347 vs LDF ~11,033 votes, effectively a tie). The 2020 local-body LDF win suggests CPM is well-organized here, but it remains a competitive UDF-LDF battleground.

4.Edakkara Grama Panchayat

Projected leader: UDF (Congress/Aryadan Shoukath). UDF controls this Grama Panchayath (2020) and Aryadan Shoukath has personal ties to the Nilambur area.
Vote share (est.): LDF ~30–40%, UDF ~30–40%, BJP ~5–10%, PV Anvar/TMC ~10–15%. (Floating voters and minor parties could swing it.)
Key issues: Plantation-sector livelihoods; tribal community welfare; man–animal conflict (wild boars and elephants damage farms). Edakkara is a high-range area with many migrant families working plantations.
2021 context: Edakkara’s assembly votes in 2021 were nearly tied (LDF 7,757 vs UDF 7,745), illustrating how finely balanced it is. Past local polls (2020) favor UDF control here, so the Congress may have a slight edge absent larger swings.

5.Karulai Grama Panchayat

Projected leader: LDF (M. Swaraj). Karulai has a significant tribal population, and the LDF’s 2021 vote there (7,605) exceeded UDF’s (6,159). The 2020 local result also aligns with LDF strength.
Vote share (est.): LDF ~40–50%, UDF ~25–35%, BJP ~5%, PV Anvar/TMC ~5–10%. (A higher LDF base here suggests a comfortable Left margin.)
Key issues: Tribal welfare (a court petition notes ~300 tribal families in Karulai living in makeshift forest shelters); connectivity (roads/bridges to remote hamlets); agricultural support.
2021 context: LDF’s lead in Karulai (≈7,605 vs 6,159) mirrored its dominance in the 2020 local bodies. UDF’s local councilors exist but Karulai remains more favorable to the Left.

6.Moothedam Grama Panchayat

Projected leader: UDF (Aryadan Shoukath). Moothedam Grama Panchayath is UDF-held (2020) and has a large migrant (mostly Christian) population.
Vote share (est.): LDF ~25–35%, UDF ~50–55%, BJP ~10–15%, PV Anvar/TMC ~5–10%. (UDF looks strongest here.)
Key issues: Migrant settler welfare; jobs; man–animal conflict on farms. Notably, BJP’s highest booth performance in Nilambur was in Moothedam (4.3% in 2021), reflecting a small but mobilized Christian/settler minority.
2021 context: UDF’s lead was decisive here (UDF 8,915 vs LDF 6,584). This suggests Shoukath should comfortably top the poll in Moothedam, barring a massive swing.

7.Pothukal Grama Panchayat

Projected leader: Lean LDF. The 2021 result slightly favored LDF (8,319 vs 7,813), although UDF held the Grama Panchayath in 2020.
Vote share (est.): LDF ~35–40%, UDF ~30–35%, BJP ~5%, PV Anvar/TMC ~5–10%. (A close three-way contest is likely.)
Key issues: Landslide and disaster relief (Pothukal was hit hard by recent Western Ghats floods/landslides); tribal resettlement (part of the HC petition area); welfare of plantation workers.
2021 context: LDF’s slight 2021 edge here means Pothukal is a swing area. Local sentiment may hinge on how effectively relief and reconstruction are handled.

8.Vazhikkadavu Grama Panchayat

Projected leader: UDF (Aryadan Shoukath). UDF narrowly trails here in local polls, and a recent scandal has boosted anti-incumbent sentiment.
Vote share (est.): LDF ~30–35%, UDF ~30–35%, BJP ~5–10%, PV Anvar/TMC ~5–10%. (Race is essentially neck-and-neck, with smaller players splitting the rest.)
Key issues: Wildlife-electrocution scandal – a 15-year-old boy was killed by an illegal electric boar trap in Vazhikkadavu, and Congress has demanded accountability (“government‑sponsored murder”). This issue, plus tribal welfare (the HC petition also covers Vazhikkadavu), dominates the area.
2021 context: Vazhikkadavu was tied in 2021 (LDF 13,471 vs UDF 13,436). With both sides effectively neck-and-neck, local developments like the electrocution case could tip the balance this time.